"Theory
of probabilities was created when Pascal and Fermat started playing
gambling games", stated one of their contemporaries.
These
two scientists did sums on theory of probabilities by correspondence
and the relevant material was obtained during their visits to the
gambling house at leisure. Later this correspondence resulted in
Pascal's treatise, "completely new composition on accidental
combinations which govern the gambling games".
In
his work Pascal almost completely casts out phantoms of luck and
chance from gambling games, substituting them with cold statistic
calculations based on the arithmetic mind. It's difficult for us
to imagine what riot the invention made among the gamblers. We treat
theory of probabilities as something trivial, though only specialists
are sound on its details, but everyone understands its main principle.
But in the times of the French mathematician, the minds of all gamblers
were absorbed with such notions as "divine intent", "lap
of Fortune" and other things that only enhance the obsession
by the game adding extra mystical tones to the games. Pascal without
any hesitation opposes his thesis to such attitude to the game "Fluctuations
of happiness and luck subordinate to considerations based on fairness
and which aim irrevocably to give every player what actually is
owing to him".
In
Pascal's hands mathematics became fabulous art of foreseeing. It
is more than just amazing that unlike Galileo, the French scientist
did not make numerous tiring experiments on multiple throwing dice
that tool a great deal of time. In Pascal's opinion, the unique
feature of the art of mathematic consideration compared to the common
statistics is that it obtains its results not from the experiments
but is based on "mind foreseeing", i.e. on intellectual
definitions. As a result "preciseness of mathematics is combined
with uncertainty of chance. Our method borrows its awkward name
- "mathematics of chance" from this ambiguity". Another
curious name followed Pascal's invention - "method of mathematical
expectation". The
result of these simple calculations can cast down many fans of dice,
but on the other hand, the rapture of those lucky ones throwing
double six is staggering. Because they know the exact devil number
of opposite outcomes that opposed their luck!
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